Crusaders vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 30.2%draw 2.5%67.3% CrusadersCrusaders 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fijian Drua and 38 Crusaders, with the middle run at 12 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Fijian Drua.
Crusaders 1717, Fijian Drua 1277 — 440 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders4–0–2Fijian Drua6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Crusaders by 24.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Crusaders 69–26 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-04-05 | Fijian Drua 14–31 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-03-09 | Fijian Drua 20–10 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2023-06-10 | Crusaders 49–8 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2023-03-11 | Fijian Drua 25–24 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.