Crusaders vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Crusaders 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 27.9%draw 2.5%69.6% CrusadersCrusaders 78.4%draw 2.5%19.1% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Crusaders v Fijian Drua, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Fijian Drua and 38 Crusaders, half of them between 4 Crusaders and 25 Crusaders, with the middle run at 13 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-27 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Crusaders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Crusaders, a bar to the left helps Fijian Drua.
Crusaders 1777, Fijian Drua 1225 — 551 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders4–0–2Fijian Drua6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Crusaders by 24.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Crusaders 69–26 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-04-05 | Fijian Drua 14–31 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-03-09 | Fijian Drua 20–10 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
| 2023-06-10 | Crusaders 49–8 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2023-03-11 | Fijian Drua 25–24 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.