Crusaders vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Crusaders 85.7%draw 2.5%11.8% HighlandersHighlanders 33.9%draw 2.5%63.6% CrusadersCrusaders 74.4%draw 2.5%23.1% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Crusaders v Highlanders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Highlanders and 35 Crusaders, half of them between 3 Crusaders and 22 Crusaders, with the middle run at 11 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Crusaders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Crusaders, a bar to the left helps Highlanders.
Crusaders 1777, Highlanders 1314 — 463 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders17–0–6Highlanders23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 9.6 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Crusaders by 8.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Crusaders 29–18 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2026-02-13 | Highlanders 25–23 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-05-23 | Crusaders 15–12 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Highlanders 10–43 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | Highlanders 32–29 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.