Crusaders vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% HighlandersHighlanders 34.2%draw 2.5%63.3% CrusadersCrusaders 71.8%draw 2.5%25.7% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Highlanders and 35 Crusaders, with the middle run at 10 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Highlanders.
Crusaders 1717, Highlanders 1328 — 389 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders17–1–6Highlanders24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 9.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Crusaders by 8.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Crusaders 29–18 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2026-02-13 | Highlanders 25–23 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-05-23 | Crusaders 15–12 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Highlanders 10–43 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | Highlanders 32–29 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.