Crusaders vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% HurricanesHurricanes 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% CrusadersCrusaders 40.0%draw 2.5%57.5% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Hurricanes and 23 Crusaders, with the middle run at 1 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Hurricanes.
Crusaders 1717, Hurricanes 1864 — 148 points, favouring Hurricanes
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders15–0–8Hurricanes23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 5.6 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Crusaders by 6.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Crusaders 47–14 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-05-01 | Hurricanes 38–31 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-04-11 | Hurricanes 24–31 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-02-14 | Crusaders 33–25 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2024-03-15 | Crusaders 10–14 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.