Crusaders vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Crusaders 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% HurricanesHurricanes 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% CrusadersCrusaders 39.2%draw 2.5%58.3% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Crusaders v Hurricanes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Hurricanes and 21 Crusaders, half of them between 6 Hurricanes and 10 Crusaders, with the middle run at 1 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Crusaders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Crusaders, a bar to the left helps Hurricanes.
Crusaders 1777, Hurricanes 1912 — 135 points, favouring Hurricanes
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders15–0–8Hurricanes23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 5.6 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Crusaders by 6.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Crusaders 47–14 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-05-01 | Hurricanes 38–31 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-04-11 | Hurricanes 24–31 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-02-14 | Crusaders 33–25 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2024-03-15 | Crusaders 10–14 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.