Crusaders vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 65.2%draw 2.5%32.3% LionsLions 56.0%draw 2.5%41.5% CrusadersCrusaders 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Lions and 25 Crusaders, with the middle run at 5 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Lions.
Crusaders 1717, Lions 1678 — 38 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders6–0–1Lions7 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Crusaders by 10.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-26 | Crusaders 36–10 Lions | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2018-08-04 | Crusaders 37–18 Lions | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2018-04-01 | Lions 8–14 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2017-08-05 | Lions 17–25 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2016-07-23 | Lions 42–25 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.