Crusaders vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Crusaders 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 31.8%draw 2.5%65.7% CrusadersCrusaders 75.9%draw 2.5%21.6% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Crusaders v New South Wales Waratahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 New South Wales Waratahs and 32 Crusaders, half of them between 2 Crusaders and 20 Crusaders, with the middle run at 9 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 38-29 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Crusaders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Crusaders, a bar to the left helps New South Wales Waratahs.
Crusaders 1777, New South Wales Waratahs 1289 — 487 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders8–0–5New South Wales Waratahs13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 7.8 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Crusaders by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Crusaders 35–20 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-05-16 | New South Wales Waratahs 33–48 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-04-12 | New South Wales Waratahs 43–40 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Crusaders 24–37 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-05-27 | Crusaders 42–18 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.