Crusaders vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 79.0%draw 2.5%18.5% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 32.6%draw 2.5%64.9% CrusadersCrusaders 73.1%draw 2.5%24.4% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 New South Wales Waratahs and 28 Crusaders, with the middle run at 7 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Crusaders 1717, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 406 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders8–0–4New South Wales Waratahs12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 8.7 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Crusaders by 9.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Crusaders 35–20 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-05-16 | New South Wales Waratahs 33–48 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-04-12 | New South Wales Waratahs 43–40 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Crusaders 24–37 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-05-27 | Crusaders 42–18 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.