Crusaders vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 44.2%draw 2.5%53.3% CrusadersCrusaders 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Queensland Reds and 30 Crusaders, with the middle run at 8 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Crusaders 1717, Queensland Reds 1454 — 263 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders10–0–2Queensland Reds12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 16.2 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Crusaders by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Queensland Reds 31–26 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-06-06 | Crusaders 32–12 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-03-09 | Crusaders 43–19 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2024-05-04 | Crusaders 28–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2022-06-03 | Crusaders 37–15 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.