Crusaders vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Crusaders 82.5%draw 2.5%15.0% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 41.0%draw 2.5%56.5% CrusadersCrusaders 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Crusaders v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Queensland Reds and 31 Crusaders, half of them between 2 Crusaders and 19 Crusaders, with the middle run at 9 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Crusaders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Crusaders, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Crusaders 1777, Queensland Reds 1460 — 316 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders11–0–2Queensland Reds13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 15.9 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Crusaders by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Queensland Reds 31–26 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-06-06 | Crusaders 32–12 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-03-09 | Crusaders 43–19 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2024-05-04 | Crusaders 28–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2023-03-31 | Queensland Reds 12–25 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.