Crusaders vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% SharksSharks 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% CrusadersCrusaders 56.6%draw 2.5%40.9% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Sharks and 25 Crusaders, with the middle run at 6 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Sharks.
Crusaders 1717, Sharks 1613 — 104 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders3–1–0Sharks4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Crusaders by 19.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-03 | Crusaders 21–21 Sharks | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2018-07-21 | Crusaders 40–10 Sharks | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2016-03-26 | Sharks 14–19 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2015-04-04 | Sharks 10–52 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.