Crusaders vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% StormersStormers 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% CrusadersCrusaders 51.0%draw 2.5%46.5% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stormers and 26 Crusaders, with the middle run at 5 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 31-26 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Stormers.
Crusaders 1717, Stormers 1716 — 1 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders2–1–0Stormers3 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Crusaders by 16.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | Stormers 19–19 Crusaders | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2018-03-03 | Crusaders 45–28 Stormers | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2017-04-22 | Crusaders 57–24 Stormers | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.