Crusaders vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Crusaders 75.9%draw 2.5%21.6% Western ForceWestern Force 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% CrusadersCrusaders 63.4%draw 2.5%34.1% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Western Force and 35 Crusaders, with the middle run at 10 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Crusaders, negative favours Western Force.
Crusaders 1717, Western Force 1463 — 254 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders6–0–2Western Force8 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Crusaders by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Western Force 31–26 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-03-15 | Crusaders 55–33 Western Force | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2024-04-20 | Western Force 37–15 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2023-05-06 | Crusaders 48–13 Western Force | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2022-05-07 | Western Force 15–53 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.