Crusaders vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Crusaders 81.4%draw 2.5%16.1% Western ForceWestern Force 45.8%draw 2.5%51.7% CrusadersCrusaders 66.8%draw 2.5%30.7% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Crusaders v Western Force, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Crusaders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Western Force and 34 Crusaders, half of them between 2 Crusaders and 21 Crusaders, with the middle run at 10 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Crusaders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Crusaders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Crusaders, a bar to the left helps Western Force.
Crusaders 1777, Western Force 1471 — 306 points, favouring Crusaders
Crusaders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Crusaders6–0–2Western Force8 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Crusaders by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Western Force 31–26 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-03-15 | Crusaders 55–33 Western Force | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2024-04-20 | Western Force 37–15 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2023-05-06 | Crusaders 48–13 Western Force | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2022-05-07 | Western Force 15–53 Crusaders | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.