Dragons vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% DragonsDragons 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Edinburgh and 13 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Edinburgh.
Dragons 1369, Edinburgh 1496 — 127 points, favouring Edinburgh
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons4–0–13Edinburgh17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 10.5 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Edinburgh by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Dragons 15–24 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-03-28 | Edinburgh 38–5 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Dragons 17–22 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2022-09-17 | Edinburgh 44–6 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2021-11-27 | Dragons 14–30 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.