Dragons vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 55.3%draw 2.5%42.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 75.0%draw 2.5%22.5% DragonsDragons 38.2%draw 2.5%59.3% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Edinburgh and 20 Dragons, half of them between 6 Edinburgh and 10 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Dragons 1330, Edinburgh 1528 — 198 points, favouring Edinburgh
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons4–0–13Edinburgh17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 10.5 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Edinburgh by 13.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Dragons 15–24 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-03-28 | Edinburgh 38–5 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | Dragons 17–22 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2022-09-17 | Edinburgh 44–6 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2021-11-27 | Dragons 14–30 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.