Dragons vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 31.9%draw 2.5%65.6% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% DragonsDragons 24.1%draw 2.5%73.4% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Glasgow Warriors and 14 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Dragons 1369, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 423 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons3–1–11Glasgow Warriors15 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 15.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Glasgow Warriors by 17.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Glasgow Warriors 49–0 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-02-16 | Dragons 20–45 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-02-17 | Glasgow Warriors 40–7 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-04-01 | Glasgow Warriors 73–33 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-01-28 | Dragons 28–42 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.