Dragons vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 26.1%draw 2.5%71.4% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 85.5%draw 2.5%12.0% DragonsDragons 16.8%draw 2.5%80.7% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Glasgow Warriors and 14 Dragons, half of them between 14 Glasgow Warriors and 1 Dragons, with the middle run at 5 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Dragons 1330, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 620 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons3–1–12Glasgow Warriors16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 15.2 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Glasgow Warriors by 17.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Glasgow Warriors 49–0 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-02-16 | Dragons 20–45 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-02-17 | Glasgow Warriors 40–7 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-04-01 | Glasgow Warriors 73–33 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2023-01-28 | Dragons 28–42 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.