Dragons vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 33.9%draw 2.5%63.6% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 78.4%draw 2.5%19.1% DragonsDragons 26.1%draw 2.5%71.4% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Gloucester Rugby and 15 Dragons, half of them between 11 Gloucester Rugby and 4 Dragons, with the middle run at 3 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-31 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Dragons 1330, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 355 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–0–1Gloucester Rugby2 meetings, 2016 to 2022 · Gloucester Rugby by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Dragons 21–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2016-04-09 | Gloucester Rugby 21–23 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.