Dragons vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 71.3%draw 2.5%26.2% DragonsDragons 37.3%draw 2.5%60.2% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Gloucester Rugby and 24 Dragons, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Dragons 1369, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 151 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–0–1Gloucester Rugby2 meetings, 2016 to 2022 · Gloucester Rugby by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-09 | Dragons 21–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2016-04-09 | Gloucester Rugby 21–23 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.