Dragons vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% LionsLions 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% DragonsDragons 29.5%draw 2.5%68.0% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Lions and 15 Dragons, half of them between 10 Lions and 7 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Dragons 1330, Lions 1664 — 334 points, favouring Lions
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–1–7Lions8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 14.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Lions 42–26 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-01-18 | Lions 60–10 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
| 2024-10-13 | Dragons 19–23 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-12-02 | Lions 49–24 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-01-22 | Dragons 25–30 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Centre for Sporting Excellence |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.