Dragons vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 40.2%draw 2.5%57.3% LionsLions 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% DragonsDragons 28.2%draw 2.5%69.3% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Lions and 13 Dragons, with the middle run at 3 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Lions.
Dragons 1369, Lions 1678 — 309 points, favouring Lions
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–1–7Lions8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 14.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Lions 42–26 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-01-18 | Lions 60–10 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Ellis Park |
| 2024-10-13 | Dragons 19–23 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-12-02 | Lions 49–24 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-01-22 | Dragons 25–30 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Centre for Sporting Excellence |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.