Dragons vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% LyonLyon 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% DragonsDragons 42.2%draw 2.5%55.3% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lyon and 24 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Lyon.
Dragons 1369, Lyon 1429 — 60 points, favouring Lyon
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–0–1Lyon2 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Lyon by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Dragons 23–21 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2021-12-17 | Dragons 28–41 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.