Dragons vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 52.0%draw 2.5%45.5% LyonLyon 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% DragonsDragons 41.8%draw 2.5%55.7% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Lyon and 20 Dragons, half of them between 6 Lyon and 9 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Dragons 1330, Lyon 1487 — 158 points, favouring Lyon
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–0–1Lyon2 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Lyon by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Dragons 23–21 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2021-12-17 | Dragons 28–41 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.