Dragons vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 26.5%draw 2.5%71.0% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 84.5%draw 2.5%13.0% DragonsDragons 20.2%draw 2.5%77.3% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Montpellier Herault and 12 Dragons, with the middle run at 5 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Dragons 1369, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 513 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–3Montpellier Herault3 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 6.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Montpellier Herault 18–12 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-12-06 | Dragons 14–18 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2016-04-23 | Montpellier Herault 22–12 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.