Dragons vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 24.7%draw 2.5%72.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 85.5%draw 2.5%12.0% DragonsDragons 16.4%draw 2.5%81.1% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Montpellier Herault and 13 Dragons, half of them between 14 Montpellier Herault and 1 Dragons, with the middle run at 5 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Dragons 1330, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 643 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–3Montpellier Herault3 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 6.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Montpellier Herault 18–12 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-12-06 | Dragons 14–18 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2016-04-23 | Montpellier Herault 22–12 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.