Dragons vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 40.5%draw 2.5%57.0% MunsterMunster 81.0%draw 2.5%16.5% DragonsDragons 25.7%draw 2.5%71.8% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Munster and 15 Dragons, half of them between 11 Munster and 6 Dragons, with the middle run at 2 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Dragons 1330, Munster 1728 — 399 points, favouring Munster
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons2–0–12Munster14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Munster by 18.1 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Munster by 22.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Munster 22–20 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2025-01-25 | Dragons 19–38 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-11-04 | Munster 45–14 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2022-09-25 | Dragons 23–17 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2022-03-05 | Munster 64–3 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.