Dragons vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 25.1%draw 2.5%72.4% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 85.2%draw 2.5%12.3% DragonsDragons 16.8%draw 2.5%80.7% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Northampton Saints and 12 Dragons, half of them between 14 Northampton Saints and level, with the middle run at 6 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Dragons 1330, Northampton Saints 1957 — 627 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–3Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2018 to 2021 · Northampton Saints by 17.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-03 | Dragons 39–43 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2018-12-08 | Northampton Saints 48–14 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2018-10-19 | Dragons 21–35 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.