Dragons vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 24.3%draw 2.5%73.2% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 88.1%draw 2.5%9.4% DragonsDragons 17.9%draw 2.5%79.6% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Northampton Saints and 12 Dragons, with the middle run at 6 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Dragons 1369, Northampton Saints 1918 — 549 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–3Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2018 to 2021 · Northampton Saints by 17.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-03 | Dragons 39–43 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2018-12-08 | Northampton Saints 48–14 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2018-10-19 | Dragons 21–35 Northampton Saints | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.