Dragons vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 43.7%draw 2.5%53.8% PauPau 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% DragonsDragons 32.6%draw 2.5%64.9% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Pau and 16 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Pau.
Dragons 1369, Pau 1640 — 271 points, favouring Pau
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons3–0–3Pau6 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Dragons by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Dragons 15–24 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-12-16 | Pau 24–21 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2023-01-13 | Pau 15–21 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2022-12-17 | Dragons 21–27 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2015-12-19 | Pau 17–34 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.