Dragons vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 33.6%draw 2.5%63.9% PauPau 83.0%draw 2.5%14.5% DragonsDragons 21.5%draw 2.5%76.0% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Pau and 14 Dragons, half of them between 12 Pau and 4 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Dragons 1330, Pau 1818 — 488 points, favouring Pau
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons3–0–3Pau6 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Dragons by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Dragons 15–24 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-12-16 | Pau 24–21 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2023-01-13 | Pau 15–21 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2022-12-17 | Dragons 21–27 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2015-12-19 | Pau 17–34 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.