Dragons vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% PerpignanDragons 52.9%draw 2.5%44.6% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Perpignan and 28 Dragons, with the middle run at 6 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Perpignan.
Dragons 1369, Perpignan 1346 — 23 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–2Perpignan2 meetings, 2021 to 2025 · Perpignan by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Perpignan 41–17 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2021-12-11 | Perpignan 22–16 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.