Dragons vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 63.9%draw 2.5%33.6% PerpignanPerpignan 66.0%draw 2.5%31.5% DragonsDragons 48.1%draw 2.5%49.4% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Perpignan and 25 Dragons, half of them between 4 Perpignan and 14 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Dragons 1330, Perpignan 1424 — 94 points, favouring Perpignan
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–0–2Perpignan3 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Perpignan by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Dragons 29–14 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-12-07 | Perpignan 41–17 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2021-12-11 | Perpignan 22–16 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.