Dragons vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% Sale SharksSale Sharks 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% DragonsDragons 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Sale Sharks and 13 Dragons, with the middle run at 1 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Dragons 1369, Sale Sharks 1558 — 189 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons1–0–1Sale Sharks2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Sale Sharks by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-21 | Sale Sharks 38–5 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2015-11-15 | Dragons 30–12 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.