Dragons vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% ScarletsScarlets 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% DragonsDragons 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Scarlets and 24 Dragons, half of them between 3 Scarlets and 13 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-16 on a tight afternoon and 30-26 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Dragons 1330, Scarlets 1273 — 57 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons7–1–15Scarlets23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 7.3 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Scarlets by 2.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Dragons 38–26 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2026-05-16 | Scarlets 35–35 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2026-01-01 | Dragons 28–5 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-04-19 | Dragons 23–31 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-01-01 | Scarlets 32–15 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.