Dragons vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% ScarletsScarlets 61.7%draw 2.5%35.8% DragonsDragons 49.4%draw 2.5%48.1% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Scarlets and 23 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Scarlets.
Dragons 1369, Scarlets 1334 — 35 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons6–1–14Scarlets21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 7.9 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Scarlets by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Scarlets 35–35 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2026-01-01 | Dragons 28–5 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-04-19 | Dragons 23–31 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-01-01 | Scarlets 32–15 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-06-01 | Scarlets 32–15 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff City Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.