Dragons vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 39.6%draw 2.5%57.9% SharksSharks 81.5%draw 2.5%16.0% DragonsDragons 24.8%draw 2.5%72.7% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Sharks and 15 Dragons, half of them between 10 Sharks and 6 Dragons, with the middle run at 2 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Dragons 1330, Sharks 1746 — 416 points, favouring Sharks
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–1–5Sharks6 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Sharks by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-03 | Dragons 17–17 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-10-05 | Dragons 30–33 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-01-21 | Dragons 9–29 Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-11-25 | Sharks 69–14 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2022-10-01 | Dragons 19–20 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.