Dragons vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 33.3%draw 2.5%64.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% DragonsDragons 25.2%draw 2.5%72.3% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stade Francais Paris and 15 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Dragons 1369, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 406 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons2–0–0Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Dragons by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Stade Francais Paris 31–36 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-01-24 | Dragons 30–19 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.