Dragons vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 40.3%draw 2.5%57.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% DragonsDragons 25.9%draw 2.5%71.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Dragons, half of them between 11 Stade Francais Paris and 6 Dragons, with the middle run at 2 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Dragons 1330, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 401 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons2–0–0Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Dragons by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Stade Francais Paris 31–36 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-01-24 | Dragons 30–19 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.