Dragons vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% StormersStormers 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% DragonsDragons 25.9%draw 2.5%71.6% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Stormers and 14 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Stormers.
Dragons 1369, Stormers 1716 — 347 points, favouring Stormers
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–5Stormers5 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Stormers by 17.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Stormers 29–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Stormers 48–12 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-05-10 | Dragons 21–44 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2022-12-03 | Stormers 34–26 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium |
| 2021-10-15 | Dragons 10–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.