Dragons vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons 32.2%draw 2.5%65.3% StormersStormers 83.9%draw 2.5%13.6% DragonsDragons 20.2%draw 2.5%77.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stormers and 13 Dragons, half of them between 12 Stormers and 3 Dragons, with the middle run at 4 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Dragons are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Dragons 1330, Stormers 1845 — 516 points, favouring Stormers
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons0–0–5Stormers5 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Stormers by 17.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Stormers 29–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-05-10 | Stormers 48–12 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-05-10 | Dragons 21–44 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2022-12-03 | Stormers 34–26 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium |
| 2021-10-15 | Dragons 10–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.