Dragons vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Dragons host Zebre on Saturday 31 October at Rodney Parade, Newport, so Dragons are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Dragons 81.1%draw 2.5%16.4% ZebreZebre 39.1%draw 2.5%58.4% DragonsDragons 70.5%draw 2.5%27.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Dragons v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Zebre and 31 Dragons, half of them between 2 Dragons and 20 Dragons, with the middle run at 9 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-24 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Dragons winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Dragons, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Dragons 1330, Zebre 1071 — 259 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons9–0–9Zebre18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Dragons by 0.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Dragons by 0.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Zebre 18–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-04-11 | Zebre 32–35 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-02-28 | Zebre 31–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-03-29 | Dragons 20–13 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-01-13 | Zebre 20–17 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.