Dragons vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Dragons 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% ZebreZebre 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% DragonsDragons 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Dragons wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Zebre and 28 Dragons, with the middle run at 5 Dragons.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Dragons are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Dragons, negative favours Zebre.
Dragons 1369, Zebre 1309 — 61 points, favouring Dragons
Dragons are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Dragons9–0–6Zebre15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Dragons by 3.3 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Dragons by 7.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Zebre 18–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-04-11 | Zebre 32–35 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-03-29 | Dragons 20–13 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-01-13 | Zebre 20–17 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-10-29 | Dragons 47–7 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.