Edinburgh vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 31.4%draw 2.5%66.1% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Glasgow Warriors and 15 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Edinburgh 1496, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 296 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh14–0–13Glasgow Warriors27 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Glasgow Warriors by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2025-12-20 | Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Hampden Park |
| 2024-12-28 | Edinburgh 10–7 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-12-22 | Glasgow Warriors 33–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Hampden Park |
| 2023-12-30 | Edinburgh 19–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.