Edinburgh vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 39.4%draw 2.5%58.1% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 24.9%draw 2.5%72.6% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Glasgow Warriors and 15 Edinburgh, half of them between 10 Glasgow Warriors and 6 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Edinburgh 1528, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 421 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh14–0–13Glasgow Warriors27 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Glasgow Warriors by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Glasgow Warriors by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | Edinburgh 3–21 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2025-12-20 | Glasgow Warriors 24–12 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Hampden Park |
| 2024-12-28 | Edinburgh 10–7 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2024-12-22 | Glasgow Warriors 33–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Hampden Park |
| 2023-12-30 | Edinburgh 19–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.