Edinburgh vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 55.9%draw 2.5%41.6% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 63.4%draw 2.5%34.1% EdinburghEdinburgh 45.0%draw 2.5%52.5% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Gloucester Rugby and 23 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Edinburgh 1496, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 24 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–0–3Gloucester Rugby4 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Gloucester Rugby by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Edinburgh 26–24 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-12-06 | Gloucester Rugby 15–10 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2024-01-13 | Edinburgh 20–21 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2015-05-01 | Edinburgh 13–19 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.