Edinburgh vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 76.5%draw 2.5%21.0% EdinburghEdinburgh 34.1%draw 2.5%63.4% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Gloucester Rugby and 16 Edinburgh, half of them between 8 Gloucester Rugby and 7 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Edinburgh 1528, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 156 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Gloucester Rugby are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Edinburgh are on 48.2%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–0–3Gloucester Rugby4 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Gloucester Rugby by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Edinburgh 26–24 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-12-06 | Gloucester Rugby 15–10 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2024-01-13 | Edinburgh 20–21 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2015-05-01 | Edinburgh 13–19 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.