Edinburgh vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 65.1%draw 2.5%32.4% HarlequinsHarlequins 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% EdinburghEdinburgh 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Harlequins and 27 Edinburgh, half of them between 3 Harlequins and 15 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 5 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Edinburgh 1528, Harlequins 1542 — 14 points, favouring Harlequins
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–0Harlequins2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Edinburgh by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-14 | Harlequins 18–23 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2016-10-22 | Edinburgh 36–35 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.