Edinburgh vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 45.2%draw 2.5%52.3% La RochelleLa Rochelle 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% EdinburghEdinburgh 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 La Rochelle and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours La Rochelle.
Edinburgh 1496, La Rochelle 1748 — 252 points, favouring La Rochelle
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh0–0–1La Rochelle1 meeting, 2020 to 2020 · La Rochelle by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-12 | Edinburgh 8–13 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.