Edinburgh vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 43.3%draw 2.5%54.2% La RochelleLa Rochelle 78.5%draw 2.5%19.0% EdinburghEdinburgh 30.4%draw 2.5%67.1% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 La Rochelle and 15 Edinburgh, half of them between 10 La Rochelle and 6 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Edinburgh 1528, La Rochelle 1820 — 292 points, favouring La Rochelle
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh0–0–2La Rochelle2 meetings, 2017 to 2020 · La Rochelle by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-12 | Edinburgh 8–13 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2017-03-31 | Edinburgh 22–32 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.