Edinburgh vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-09-18.
Edinburgh 40.8%draw 2.5%56.7% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% EdinburghEdinburgh 25.8%draw 2.5%71.7% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Leicester Tigers and 16 Edinburgh, half of them between 10 Leicester Tigers and 6 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Edinburgh 1463, Leicester Tigers 1864 — 401 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh0–0–1Leicester Tigers1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Leicester Tigers by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-31 | Leicester Tigers 16–6 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.