Edinburgh vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 37.4%draw 2.5%60.1% LeinsterLeinster 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 25.3%draw 2.5%72.2% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Leinster and 14 Edinburgh, half of them between 12 Leinster and 5 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 3 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Edinburgh 1528, Leinster 1915 — 387 points, favouring Leinster
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh3–0–14Leinster17 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 12.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Leinster by 14.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Leinster 49–31 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2026-01-31 | Leinster 28–20 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-09-20 | Edinburgh 31–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-11-04 | Leinster 36–27 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2023-03-04 | Edinburgh 27–47 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.