Edinburgh vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 32.3%draw 2.5%65.2% LeinsterLeinster 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 24.3%draw 2.5%73.2% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Leinster and 14 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 4 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Leinster.
Edinburgh 1496, Leinster 1912 — 416 points, favouring Leinster
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh3–0–13Leinster16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 12.4 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leinster by 13.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Leinster 49–31 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-09-20 | Edinburgh 31–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-11-04 | Leinster 36–27 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2023-03-04 | Edinburgh 27–47 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-02-11 | Leinster 26–7 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.