Edinburgh vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh host Lions on Friday 23 October at Hive Stadium, Edinburgh, so Edinburgh are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Edinburgh 56.0%draw 2.5%41.5% LionsLions 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% EdinburghEdinburgh 42.3%draw 2.5%55.2% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Lions and 22 Edinburgh, half of them between 6 Lions and 11 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Edinburgh 1528, Lions 1664 — 136 points, favouring Lions
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–4Lions6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 11.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Lions 54–17 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-04-04 | Edinburgh 24–12 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Lions 55–21 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-10-28 | Edinburgh 17–16 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-10-07 | Edinburgh 19–22 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.