Edinburgh vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 46.7%draw 2.5%50.8% LionsLions 72.5%draw 2.5%25.0% EdinburghEdinburgh 35.6%draw 2.5%61.9% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Lions and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Lions.
Edinburgh 1496, Lions 1678 — 182 points, favouring Lions
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–4Lions6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Lions by 11.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Lions 54–17 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-04-04 | Edinburgh 24–12 Lions | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Lions 55–21 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2023-10-28 | Edinburgh 17–16 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-10-07 | Edinburgh 19–22 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.