Edinburgh vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 63.2%draw 2.5%34.3% LyonLyon 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 51.1%draw 2.5%46.4% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lyon and 26 Edinburgh, half of them between 3 Lyon and 14 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 4 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Edinburgh 1528, Lyon 1487 — 41 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh0–0–1Lyon1 meeting, 2015 to 2015 · Lyon by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-01-17 | Lyon 21–19 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.