Edinburgh vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 37.2%draw 2.5%60.3% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 82.8%draw 2.5%14.7% EdinburghEdinburgh 24.0%draw 2.5%73.5% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Montpellier Herault and 15 Edinburgh, half of them between 11 Montpellier Herault and 5 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 3 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Edinburgh 1528, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 444 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–0–1Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Edinburgh by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-18 | Edinburgh 19–10 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2018-10-13 | Montpellier Herault 21–15 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Septeo Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.