Edinburgh vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 54.4%draw 2.5%43.1% MunsterMunster 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 36.6%draw 2.5%60.9% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Munster and 21 Edinburgh, half of them between 6 Munster and 10 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Edinburgh 1528, Munster 1728 — 200 points, favouring Munster
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh3–0–14Munster17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 7.8 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Munster by 7.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Munster 20–19 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2025-02-28 | Munster 28–34 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2024-05-17 | Edinburgh 26–29 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-12-02 | Edinburgh 17–38 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-02-18 | Munster 34–20 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.