Edinburgh vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 45.8%draw 2.5%51.7% MunsterMunster 69.0%draw 2.5%28.5% EdinburghEdinburgh 36.9%draw 2.5%60.6% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Munster and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Munster.
Edinburgh 1496, Munster 1670 — 174 points, favouring Munster
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–13Munster15 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 7.3 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Munster by 5.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Munster 20–19 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
| 2024-05-17 | Edinburgh 26–29 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-12-02 | Edinburgh 17–38 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-02-18 | Munster 34–20 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2021-02-20 | Edinburgh 10–22 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.