Edinburgh vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 49.6%draw 2.5%47.9% PauPau 76.6%draw 2.5%20.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 32.7%draw 2.5%64.8% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Pau and 25 Edinburgh, half of them between 6 Pau and 12 Edinburgh, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Edinburgh 1528, Pau 1818 — 290 points, favouring Pau
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Edinburgh are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Pau are on 47.9%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–0–0Pau1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Edinburgh by 49.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-08 | Edinburgh 54–5 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.