Edinburgh vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 45.3%draw 2.5%52.2% SaracensSaracens 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 29.9%draw 2.5%67.6% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Saracens and 16 Edinburgh, half of them between 9 Saracens and 7 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-32 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Edinburgh 1528, Saracens 1861 — 333 points, favouring Saracens
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–1Saracens3 meetings, 2021 to 2023 · Edinburgh by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-22 | Edinburgh 20–14 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-12-11 | Saracens 30–26 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2021-12-11 | Saracens 18–21 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.