Edinburgh vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 40.6%draw 2.5%56.9% SaracensSaracens 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% EdinburghEdinburgh 30.6%draw 2.5%66.9% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Saracens and 14 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Saracens.
Edinburgh 1496, Saracens 1802 — 306 points, favouring Saracens
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–1Saracens3 meetings, 2021 to 2023 · Edinburgh by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-22 | Edinburgh 20–14 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-12-11 | Saracens 30–26 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2021-12-11 | Saracens 18–21 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.