Edinburgh vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 77.6%draw 2.5%19.9% ScarletsScarlets 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% EdinburghEdinburgh 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Scarlets and 32 Edinburgh, half of them between 1 Edinburgh and 21 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 9 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-24 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Edinburgh 1528, Scarlets 1273 — 255 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh13–0–6Scarlets19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Edinburgh by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Edinburgh 24–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Scarlets 30–24 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-04-20 | Edinburgh 43–18 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-01-19 | Scarlets 19–31 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-02-18 | Scarlets 42–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.