Edinburgh vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 66.9%draw 2.5%30.6% ScarletsScarlets 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Scarlets and 26 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 5 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Scarlets.
Edinburgh 1496, Scarlets 1334 — 162 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh13–0–6Scarlets19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Edinburgh by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Edinburgh 24–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-01-25 | Scarlets 30–24 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-04-20 | Edinburgh 43–18 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-01-19 | Scarlets 19–31 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-02-18 | Scarlets 42–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.