Edinburgh vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 47.1%draw 2.5%50.4% SharksSharks 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 38.2%draw 2.5%59.3% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Sharks and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Sharks.
Edinburgh 1496, Sharks 1613 — 117 points, favouring Sharks
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–4Sharks6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Edinburgh 33–28 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-04-18 | Edinburgh 17–18 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-04-13 | Sharks 36–30 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-03-30 | Sharks 23–13 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-01-28 | Edinburgh 19–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.