Edinburgh vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 51.7%draw 2.5%45.8% SharksSharks 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% EdinburghEdinburgh 35.0%draw 2.5%62.5% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 21 Edinburgh, half of them between 6 Sharks and 10 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 1 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Edinburgh 1528, Sharks 1746 — 218 points, favouring Sharks
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–4Sharks6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Edinburgh 33–28 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-04-18 | Edinburgh 17–18 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-04-13 | Sharks 36–30 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-03-30 | Sharks 23–13 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-01-28 | Edinburgh 19–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.