Edinburgh vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 73.3%draw 2.5%24.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 39.2%draw 2.5%58.3% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 23 Edinburgh, half of them between 5 Stade Francais Paris and 12 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Edinburgh 1528, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 203 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–0–2Stade Francais Paris4 meetings, 2016 to 2018 · Stade Francais Paris by 1.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-20 | Stade Francais Paris 17–10 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2018-01-12 | Edinburgh 34–33 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2016-12-15 | Stade Francais Paris 26–20 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2016-12-10 | Edinburgh 28–23 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.