Edinburgh vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 39.1%draw 2.5%58.4% StormersStormers 81.6%draw 2.5%15.9% EdinburghEdinburgh 26.7%draw 2.5%70.8% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Stormers and 16 Edinburgh, half of them between 10 Stormers and 6 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 2 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Edinburgh 1528, Stormers 1845 — 317 points, favouring Stormers
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh2–1–4Stormers7 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Stormers by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Edinburgh 17–13 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2026-03-28 | Stormers 33–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-10-12 | Edinburgh 38–7 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Stormers 43–21 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-10-01 | Stormers 34–18 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.