Edinburgh vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% StormersStormers 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% EdinburghEdinburgh 34.3%draw 2.5%63.2% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stormers and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Stormers.
Edinburgh 1496, Stormers 1716 — 220 points, favouring Stormers
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–1–4Stormers6 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Stormers by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Stormers 33–14 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-10-12 | Edinburgh 38–7 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-03-23 | Stormers 43–21 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-10-01 | Stormers 34–18 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-06-04 | Stormers 28–17 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.