Edinburgh vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% ToulonToulon 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% EdinburghEdinburgh 59.1%draw 2.5%38.4% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Toulon and 30 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 7 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Toulon.
Edinburgh 1496, Toulon 1435 — 61 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh3–0–0Toulon3 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 16.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Edinburgh 33–20 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Toulon 17–28 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2018-10-20 | Edinburgh 40–14 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.