Edinburgh vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% ToulonToulon 72.0%draw 2.5%25.5% EdinburghEdinburgh 44.6%draw 2.5%52.9% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Toulon and 27 Edinburgh, half of them between 3 Toulon and 16 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 5 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Edinburgh 1528, Toulon 1663 — 135 points, favouring Toulon
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh3–0–1Toulon4 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Edinburgh 17–27 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-12-07 | Edinburgh 33–20 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2019-01-12 | Toulon 17–28 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2018-10-20 | Edinburgh 40–14 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.