Edinburgh vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 56.9%draw 2.5%40.6% VannesEdinburgh 49.8%draw 2.5%47.7% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Vannes and 29 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 3 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Vannes.
Edinburgh 1496, Vannes 1510 — 14 points, favouring Vannes
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–0–0Vannes1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Vannes 25–29 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.