Edinburgh vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 82.3%draw 2.5%15.2% VannesVannes 42.0%draw 2.5%55.5% EdinburghEdinburgh 69.6%draw 2.5%27.9% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 35 Edinburgh, half of them between 3 Edinburgh and 23 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 11 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Edinburgh 1528, Vannes 1280 — 248 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh1–0–0Vannes1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Vannes 25–29 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.