Edinburgh vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Edinburgh 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% ZebreZebre 44.3%draw 2.5%53.2% EdinburghEdinburgh 61.5%draw 2.5%36.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Zebre and 30 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 7 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Edinburgh, negative favours Zebre.
Edinburgh 1496, Zebre 1309 — 187 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh12–1–5Zebre18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 8.7 on average
Last 10: 7–1–2 · Edinburgh by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Edinburgh 31–30 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-09-27 | Zebre 31–28 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-04-25 | Zebre 25–25 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-02-14 | Edinburgh 17–22 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-05-10 | Edinburgh 40–14 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.