Edinburgh vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Edinburgh 88.2%draw 2.5%9.3% ZebreZebre 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% EdinburghEdinburgh 75.8%draw 2.5%21.7% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Edinburgh v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Edinburgh wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 36 Edinburgh, half of them between 4 Edinburgh and 25 Edinburgh, with the middle run at 13 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-12 on a tight afternoon and 36-23 on an open one.
Why Edinburgh are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Edinburgh winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Edinburgh, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Edinburgh 1528, Zebre 1071 — 457 points, favouring Edinburgh
Edinburgh are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Edinburgh14–1–5Zebre20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 8.9 on average
Last 10: 7–1–2 · Edinburgh by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Zebre 12–29 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-04-17 | Edinburgh 31–30 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-09-27 | Zebre 31–28 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-04-25 | Zebre 25–25 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-02-14 | Edinburgh 17–22 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.