England vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 91.7%draw 1.4%6.9% FijiFiji 15.4%draw 1.4%83.2% EnglandEngland 88.0%draw 1.4%10.6% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 England and 46 England, with the middle run at 18 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-11 on a tight afternoon and 40-22 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Fiji.
England 1763, Fiji 1412 — 351 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England6–0–1Fiji7 meetings, 1999 to 2026 · England by 24.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Fiji 8–73 England | Nations Championship | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| 2025-11-08 | England 38–18 Fiji | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-10-15 | England 30–24 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome |
| 2023-08-26 | England 22–30 Fiji | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2016-11-19 | England 58–15 Fiji | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.