England vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 93.6%draw 1.2%5.2% FijiFiji 16.0%draw 1.2%82.8% EnglandEngland 90.7%draw 1.2%8.1% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for England v Fiji, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 England and 49 England, half of them between 8 England and 36 England, with the middle run at 20 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-23 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Fiji.
England 2235, Fiji 1841 — 394 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England13–0–1Fiji14 meetings, 1973 to 2026 · England by 23.6 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · England by 26.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Fiji 8–73 England | Nations Championship | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| 2025-11-08 | England 38–18 Fiji | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-10-15 | England 30–24 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome |
| 2023-08-26 | England 22–30 Fiji | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2016-11-19 | England 58–15 Fiji | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.