England vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 55.4%draw 2.9%41.7% FranceFrance 62.1%draw 2.9%35.0% EnglandEngland 45.3%draw 2.9%51.8% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 France and 26 England, with the middle run at 2 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours France.
England 1763, France 1842 — 79 points, favouring France
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England61–8–45France114 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · England by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · France by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | France 48–46 England | Six Nations Championship | Stade de France |
| 2025-02-08 | England 26–25 France | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-16 | France 33–31 England | — | Groupama Stadium |
| 2023-03-11 | England 10–53 France | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-03-20 | France 25–13 England | — | Saint-Denis |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 114. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.