England vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 56.3%draw 2.9%40.8% FranceFrance 61.3%draw 2.9%35.8% EnglandEngland 46.0%draw 2.9%51.1% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v France, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 France and 24 England, half of them between 6 France and 12 England, with the middle run at 1 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps France.
England 2235, France 2301 — 66 points, favouring France
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England61–7–45France113 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · England by 2.7 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · France by 2.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | France 48–46 England | Six Nations Championship | Stade de France |
| 2025-02-08 | England 26–25 France | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-16 | France 33–31 England | — | Groupama Stadium |
| 2023-03-11 | England 10–53 France | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-03-20 | France 25–13 England | — | Saint-Denis |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 113. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.