England vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 92.9%draw 1.5%5.6% GeorgiaGeorgia 20.6%draw 1.5%77.9% EnglandEngland 86.9%draw 1.5%11.6% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v Georgia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 England and 50 England, half of them between 7 England and 35 England, with the middle run at 19 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-11 on a tight afternoon and 41-22 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Georgia.
England 2235, Georgia 1899 — 337 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England3–0–0Georgia3 meetings, 2003 to 2020 · England by 49.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-14 | England 40–0 Georgia | — | Twickenham |
| 2011-09-18 | England 41–10 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Forsyth Barr Stadium(neutral) |
| 2003-10-12 | England 84–6 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Patersons Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.