England vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 94.5%4.5% JapanJapan 9.7%89.3% EnglandEngland 92.0%7.0% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 England and 48 England, with the middle run at 19 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-11 on a tight afternoon and 41-22 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Japan.
England 1763, Japan 1310 — 453 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England6–0–0Japan6 meetings, 1987 to 2024 · England by 35.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | England 59–14 Japan | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-06-22 | Japan 17–52 England | — | MUFG Stadium |
| 2023-09-17 | England 34–12 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
| 2022-11-12 | England 52–13 Japan | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2018-11-17 | England 35–15 Japan | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.