England vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 91.8%draw 1.2%7.0% JapanJapan 16.3%draw 1.2%82.5% EnglandEngland 89.8%draw 1.2%9.0% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 England and 46 England, half of them between 6 England and 32 England, with the middle run at 17 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-13 on a tight afternoon and 41-24 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Japan.
England 2235, Japan 1846 — 390 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England11–0–0Japan11 meetings, 1971 to 2024 · England by 24.9 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · England by 26.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | England 59–14 Japan | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-06-22 | Japan 17–52 England | — | MUFG Stadium |
| 2023-09-17 | England 34–12 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
| 2022-11-12 | England 52–13 Japan | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2018-11-17 | England 35–15 Japan | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.