England vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 97.6%1.4% RomaniaRomania 4.0%95.0% EnglandEngland 96.3%2.7% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for England v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 56 England, half of them between 9 England and 39 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 41 and 91 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 49-28 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Romania.
England 2235, Romania 1265 — 971 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England5–0–0Romania5 meetings, 1985 to 2011 · England by 62.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-24 | England 67–3 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Forsyth Barr Stadium(neutral) |
| 2001-11-17 | England 134–0 Romania | — | Twickenham |
| 1994-11-12 | England 54–3 Romania | — | Twickenham |
| 1989-05-13 | Romania 3–58 England | — | Stadionul 23 August |
| 1985-01-05 | England 22–15 Romania | — | Twickenham |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.