England vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 97.1%1.9% RomaniaRomania 5.4%93.6% EnglandEngland 95.4%3.6% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 England and 53 England, with the middle run at 21 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours Romania.
England 1763, Romania 788 — 975 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England1–0–0Romania1 meeting, 2011 to 2011 · England by 64.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-09-24 | England 67–3 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Forsyth Barr Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.