England vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England 28.5%draw 1.9%69.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 84.1%draw 1.9%14.0% EnglandEngland 21.0%draw 1.9%77.1% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 South Africa and 15 England, half of them between 15 South Africa and 2 England, with the middle run at 5 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why England are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
England 2235, South Africa 2512 — 276 points, favouring South Africa
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England16–2–30South Africa48 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · South Africa by 4.9 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · South Africa by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | South Africa 45–21 England | Nations Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-11-16 | England 20–29 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | England 15–16 South Africa | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2022-11-26 | England 13–27 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2021-11-20 | England 27–26 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 48. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.