England vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
England 37.2%draw 1.9%60.9% South AfricaSouth Africa 71.5%draw 1.9%26.6% EnglandEngland 31.5%draw 1.9%66.6% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 South Africa and 14 England, with the middle run at 2 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why England are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours England, negative favours South Africa.
England 1763, South Africa 2036 — 273 points, favouring South Africa
England are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
England16–2–30South Africa48 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · South Africa by 4.9 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · South Africa by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | South Africa 45–21 England | Nations Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-11-16 | England 20–29 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-10-21 | England 15–16 South Africa | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
| 2022-11-26 | England 13–27 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2021-11-20 | England 27–26 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 48. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.